Why the Popular Phrase "You Can’t Time Markets" is a Myth
Timing markets is hard, but it’s absolutely possible.
For decades, investors have heard the same advice: “You can’t time the market.” Financial advisors say it. Wall Street repeats it. It’s treated like a law of nature. But what if this widely-believed rule is actually a big myth?
At CI Volatility, we prove this myth wrong every single day.
Most People Fail at Timing
The myth survives because most individual investors DO fail when they try to time markets. But that doesn’t mean timing is impossible—it means they’re doing it wrong.
Where Did This Myth Come From?
The “you can’t time markets” idea comes from old financial theory that said all information is already baked into stock prices. If that’s true, the thinking goes, you can’t predict what comes next.
This made sense 50 years ago when information moved slowly and analyzing data meant hours of manual work. But that’s not the world we live in anymore.
Everything Has Changed
Today’s markets are completely different:
We Have the Data: We can now see real-time information on market movements, investor sentiment, volatility patterns, and how different assets move together. This data didn’t exist before.
We Have the Computing Power: Modern computers can crunch millions of numbers in seconds, spotting patterns that humans could never see on their own.
Markets Follow Patterns: Volatility isn’t random chaos. Markets behave in repeatable ways. These patterns can be measured and tracked.
It’s Not About Crystal Balls
Here’s the key misunderstanding: timing markets isn’t about predicting the future perfectly. It’s about spotting when the odds are in your favor and acting on it.
At CI Volatility, we don’t claim to know exactly what happens tomorrow. Instead, we use our indicators and algorithms to:
Spot when market conditions are changing
Find moments when potential rewards outweigh the risks
Recognize situations that have historically led to specific outcomes
Measure when investor fear or greed reaches extremes
Think of it like this: casinos don’t know what the next card will be, but they make money because they understand the probabilities. That’s what we do with markets.
Patterns Exist to Time Markets
Volatility Has Patterns: When markets get extremely volatile, they tend to calm down.
Trends Have Patterns: Research shows that trends persist until they don’t, and extremes tend to reverse. Both create signals we can use.
These patterns are real. The question is whether you have the right tools to take advantage of them.
The Real Story
The financial industry has reasons to keep promoting the “you can’t time markets” message. Buy-and-hold strategies are simpler to sell and don’t require fancy technology.
But think about it: If timing markets is truly impossible, why do central banks carefully time their decisions? Why do hedge funds hire teams of data scientists? Why does every major bank have traders?
Timing markets is hard, but it’s absolutely possible.
