We studied every time the VIX has crossed 20 from below since 1990, and tracked whether it went on to hit 30 before falling back under 20. Here’s what we found.
When the VIX Crosses 20: How Often Does It Reach 30?
The VIX is famous for its violent spikes in times of market stress. Round-number thresholds like 20, 30, and 40 serve as emotional markers for traders and risk managers.
But here’s the real question: once the VIX first crosses 20, how often does it actually go on to hit 30 before falling back under 20?
Methodology
To avoid double-counting, we looked only at clean runs where the VIX:
Was below 20,
Crossed above 20 for the first time, and
Either hit 30 or dropped back below 20.
That way, each run above 20 is counted once, not padded by multiple 30+ closes within the same episode.