When you study 35 years of VIX data — from 1990 through 2025 — you realize volatility tends to live in long-lasting “regimes.”
The results show multi-year periods where “normal” volatility levels are stable but very different from one regime to the next.
Each regime lasted 3 to 7 years on average, with clear breaks marked by macro or policy shocks.
Why Volatility Regimes Matter
Traders often assume the VIX “always reverts to 20.” That’s wrong.
During the 2013–2019 period, the average was closer to 14, and touching 20 meant panic.
During 2008–2011, the average was above 25, and 20 meant relief.
The meaning of “high” or “low” volatility depends entirely on the regime you’re in.
Conclusion
Volatility regimes aren’t theory — they’re observable reality.
The VIX doesn’t just wander; it settles into stable zones for years, interrupted only by crisis or policy change. Recognizing which regime you’re in — and when one is ending is critical.