Is Quantum Computing the Real Reason Bitcoin Can’t Recover?
“Q-Day” is a term used to describe the hypothetical future date when a sufficiently powerful quantum computer becomes capable of not only hacking bitcoin, but also breaking today’s most widely used public-key encryption systems.
Bitcoin secures itself with elliptic curve cryptography (ECDSA) for private keys. Normal computers can crack the code but it would take longer than the universe’s age. Even the best supercomputers would take billions of years.
But a powerful quantum computer could solve that math problem exponentially faster. If your public key is exposed on the blockchain an attacker could hack your private key and steal your coins.
Many bitcoins (20-30% or more) sit in addresses with exposed public keys from past transactions. Newer practices (like always using fresh addresses) hide the public key behind a hash, making it harder to hack.
The threat isn’t here yet, but progress in quantum tech has accelerated. Some forecasts now point to “Q-Day” as possibly arriving by 2026-2027, faster than earlier estimates. Upgrading Bitcoin to quantum-resistant algorithms could take 5-10 years due to the need for consensus and migration.
Why This Could Be Hurting Bitcoin’s Price Lately
Bitcoin had a rough 2025: It ended the year down lagging badly behind gold and U.S. stocks.
Analysts at Jefferies recently called quantum computing an “existential threat” to Bitcoin, suggesting the price has peaked partly because of this risk.
Reports note institutions may be de-risking or rebalancing portfolios due to shifting perceptions of faster quantum progress.
Not everyone agrees. Firms like Grayscale have called it a “red herring” for now.
In short, the quantum threat is real and potentially nearer-term than before, and it’s plausible that rising awareness is adding downward pressure helping explain why Bitcoin can’t seem to break out despite pro-crypto policies. Long-term believers point to eventual upgrades fixing it, but short-term, the uncertainty hurts sentiment.