Something interesting is happening in the drone defense space.
Ondas Inc. (ONDS) has gone from a sub-dollar micro-cap to a $4.5 billion mid-cap in under a year, riding a wave of global demand for drone technology. The stock is up over 500% in twelve months. It’s also down 35% from its January highs, sitting around $10 after a sharp selloff last week. Earnings drop mid-March.
What Is Ondas?
The first and primary growth driver is their manufacturing of drones, counter-drone platforms, and ground robotics for military clients.
Their Iron Drone Raider is designed to take out hostile drones. They also have the technology to detect, identify, and take control of enemy drones by interacting directly with their communication protocols.
This is not a PowerPoint company anymore. They’re winning real contracts: European airport counter-drone deployments, NATO-country orders, border protection programs, Asia-Pacific defense contracts.
The Bull Case
The revenue trajectory is the headline. Ondas guided FY2025 revenue of $47.6 to $49.6 million, up from just $7.2 million in 2024. For FY2026, management raised guidance to $170 to $180 million which is a roughly 3.5x year-over-year increase. Backlog surged 180% to $65.3 million as of year-end 2025, and the company is targeting $300 million in bookings for 2026.
The macro tailwinds are obvious and powerful. NATO rearmament, European security spending, border protection programs, and the broader drone threats across possible military events are all driving demand. Drone and Counter-drone demand is arguably the fastest-growing segment in defense right now.
The Bear Case
Valuation is stretched by any traditional metric. At roughly 31x forward price-to-sales and an EV/revenue of 44x, the stock is priced for near-flawless execution. Any stumble such as a revenue miss, a guidance reduction, an integration hiccup and the downside is severe.
Ondas remains unprofitable. TTM EPS is negative $0.61 with EBITDA of negative $37.8 million. Management expects EBITDA positivity in the second half of 2026 at the earliest, but that’s a target, not a guarantee.
Dilution is a real and ongoing concern. Multiple equity offerings in 2025 and early 2026 have massively expanded the share count.
And the competitive landscape is intensifying. AeroVironment, Red Cat Holdings, Draganfly, and others are all chasing the same drone dollars.
Why the Earnings Setup Is Interesting for Premium Sellers
Here’s the thing: Ondas already pre-announced Q4 revenue of $27 to $29 million at their January Investor Day. Consensus is around $28.4 million. So the top-line number is largely known. The EPS estimate is negative $0.04.
The stock has pulled back meaningfully from $15.28 to around $10, which means some of the speculative froth has been washed out. At the same time, options premiums remain elevated heading into the March report, which is exactly the environment premium sellers want.
For put sellers, the question is straightforward: at what price are you comfortable owning this stock, or at what level do you believe the downside is sufficiently limited that you’re happy collecting premium?