Monday, Oct 27, 2025
Key Drivers:
Fresh U.S.–China trade-deal optimism pushed risk higher ahead of a heavy mega-cap earnings week and the Fed decision. Tech leadership was clear, with Qualcomm ripping on new AI data-center chips. Reuters
Sector Breakdown:
Technology led gains; broader risk appetite improved on the trade headlines. Reuters
Notable Movers:
Qualcomm (QCOM) +11% after unveiling two AI chips for data centers. Reuters
Volatility Insight:
VIX closed 15.79, down on the day as risk premia compressed alongside the trade optimism. YCharts
Tuesday, Oct 28, 2025
Key Drivers:
Another set of record closes as Nvidia jumped on plans to build AI supercomputers for the U.S. Department of Energy, while Microsoft firmed on an OpenAI restructuring deal. Reuters
Sector Breakdown:
Tech outperformed again, with AI-linked momentum in semis and software carrying the tape. Reuters
Notable Movers:
Nvidia (NVDA) +~5% on the supercomputer news; Microsoft (MSFT) +~2% on OpenAI developments. Reuters
Volatility Insight:
VIX 16.42 (up vs. Monday) — mild bid to protection despite price strength, reflecting event risk (Fed/earnings) into mid-week. YCharts
Wednesday, Oct 29, 2025
Key Drivers:
The Fed cut 25 bps as expected, but Powell guided that a December cut is “far from assured,” tempering the earlier rally. Nvidia tagged $5T market value intraday; earnings breadth remained strong. The S&P 500 finished flat; Nasdaq up. Reuters
Sector Breakdown:
Mixed tape post-press conference; rate-path uncertainty blunted broad follow-through. Reuters
Notable Movers:
Caterpillar (CAT) +11.6% on earnings; Nvidia (NVDA) +~3% as AI leadership persisted. Reuters
Volatility Insight:
VIX 16.92 — ticked higher into the policy-rate uncertainty despite indices holding near highs. YCharts
Thursday, Oct 30, 2025
Key Drivers:
Risk-off rotation as Meta’s capex plans and Microsoft’s massive AI spend spooked investors; Alphabet bucked the trend on solid ads/cloud. Fed tone still less dovish for December. S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell. Reuters
Sector Breakdown:
Consumer Discretionary led declines (-2.6%); Real Estate was the top gainer (+0.7%). Reuters
Notable Movers:
Meta (META) -11% (biggest drop in ~3 years); Microsoft (MSFT) -~3%; Alphabet (GOOGL) +~2.5%; Chipotle (CMG) -18%; Cardinal Health (CAH) +15%. Reuters
Volatility Insight:
VIX 16.91 — essentially flat vs. Wed, but the composition of risk changed (mega-cap growth de-risking while defensives/REITs caught a bid). YCharts
Friday, Oct 31, 2025
Key Drivers:
Amazon blew out on cloud growth; indices closed higher for the day and notched multi-month monthly streaks, but Fed-speaker pushback cooled hopes for another near-term cut. Reuters+1
Sector Breakdown:
Consumer Discretionary +4% (biggest one-day gain since May) on Amazon’s surge; broader breadth improved into the close despite rate-cut caution. Reuters
Notable Movers:
Amazon (AMZN) +~9.6% (all-time high); Apple (AAPL) -0.4% post-earnings; Western Digital (WDC) +~8.7%; First Solar (FSLR) +~14.3%; Warner Bros Discovery (WBD) +~9% on M&A chatter. Reuters
Volatility Insight:
VIX 17.44 (higher on the day) — modest risk-premium rebuild alongside hawkish Fed commentary, even as discretionary rallied on single-name strength. YCharts
Quick context on the week
Into month-end, earnings beats were widespread (over 80% of S&P 500 reporters topping estimates), but AI capex and the Fed’s slower-cut messaging injected two-way risk. Amazon’s print rescued Friday, while Thursday showcased how AI spend sensitivity can weigh on growth leadership. Reuters+2Reuters+2
If you want, I can turn this into a Substack-ready post with tables (daily sector winners/losers and VIX close each day) and a small “week in one chart” panel.
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Here’s the cleaned, link-free version of your Oct 27 – 31, 2025 market analysis — structured day-by-day with volatility context only:
Monday, Oct 27, 2025
Key Drivers:
Fresh U.S.–China trade-deal optimism lifted risk ahead of a packed mega-cap earnings week and the upcoming Fed meeting. Tech leadership was clear, with Qualcomm jumping on new AI data-center chip announcements.
Sector Breakdown:
Technology led gains, while cyclicals followed. Defensives lagged as traders rotated back into growth.
Notable Movers:
Qualcomm (QCOM) +11% after unveiling two AI chips for data-center applications.
Volatility Insight:
VIX closed around 15.8, easing on the day as risk premia compressed alongside upbeat sentiment.
Tuesday, Oct 28, 2025
Key Drivers:
Another record-setting day as Nvidia rose on plans to build AI supercomputers for the U.S. Department of Energy, while Microsoft advanced on an OpenAI restructuring deal.
Sector Breakdown:
Technology again outperformed, with AI momentum in semiconductors and software.
Notable Movers:
Nvidia (NVDA) +5% on supercomputer news.
Microsoft (MSFT) +2% on AI-related developments.
Volatility Insight:
VIX ticked up to about 16.4—a mild bid to protection despite strength in equities, reflecting caution ahead of the Fed and earnings catalysts.
Wednesday, Oct 29, 2025
Key Drivers:
The Fed cut rates by 25 bps as expected but Chair Powell’s comment that a December cut was “far from assured” tempered enthusiasm. Nvidia briefly reached a $5 trillion market value intraday; the S&P 500 finished flat and the Nasdaq closed slightly higher.
Sector Breakdown:
Mixed performance post-press conference; financials and industrials steadied while growth names faded into the close.
Notable Movers:
Caterpillar (CAT) +11.6% on strong earnings.
Nvidia (NVDA) +3% as AI leadership persisted.
Volatility Insight:
VIX near 16.9, up modestly as policy-path uncertainty offset solid equity levels.
Thursday, Oct 30, 2025
Key Drivers:
Risk-off tone returned after Meta’s heavy capex guidance and Microsoft’s escalating AI spend rattled investors. Alphabet bucked the trend with upbeat ad and cloud results. Fed tone remained less dovish. Both S&P 500 and Nasdaq declined.
Sector Breakdown:
Consumer Discretionary led declines (−2.6%), while Real Estate was the only sector higher (+0.7%).
Notable Movers:
Meta (META) −11% (biggest drop in roughly three years).
Microsoft (MSFT) −3%.
Alphabet (GOOGL) +2.5%.
Chipotle (CMG) −18%.
Cardinal Health (CAH) +15%.
Volatility Insight:
VIX held near 16.9—flat overall but with rotation under the surface as traders sold growth and sought defensive exposure.
Friday, Oct 31, 2025
Key Drivers:
Amazon’s blockbuster earnings and strong cloud growth lifted sentiment into month-end. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq both finished higher, capping multi-month winning streaks even as several Fed officials pushed back on expectations for another near-term cut.
Sector Breakdown:
Consumer Discretionary +4% (largest one-day gain since May) on Amazon’s surge; broad participation returned into the close.
Notable Movers:
Amazon (AMZN) +9.6%, new all-time high.
Apple (AAPL) −0.4% post-earnings.
Western Digital (WDC) +8.7%.
First Solar (FSLR) +14.3%.
Warner Bros Discovery (WBD) +9% on merger chatter.
Volatility Insight:
VIX rose to roughly 17.4—a modest risk-premium rebuild despite the equity rebound, as traders priced in hawkish Fed commentary heading into November.
Weekly Context
Into month-end, more than 80% of S&P 500 reporters beat earnings estimates. Yet concerns about surging AI capex and the Fed’s slower-cut stance kept volatility elevated relative to early-October levels. Amazon’s strong report rescued the week, but Thursday’s drawdown reminded markets how fragile growth leadership remains when funding costs or guidance disappoint.