Monday, October 13, 2025
The S&P 500 opened with momentum from the prior week’s record highs, rising as much as 0.8% intraday on optimism around cooling inflation signals from the previous Friday’s CPI report (which came in at 2.3% YoY, below expectations). However, gains moderated amid early profit-taking in overbought tech names. The index ultimately closed up 0.45% at 6,654.72.
Key Drivers: Positive Q3 earnings kickoff, with tech giants like Alphabet (GOOGL) and Tesla (TSLA) reporting beats on revenue—Alphabet up 1.2% after hours on ad growth, Tesla +3.1% on EV delivery surprises. Producer Price Index (PPI) preview whispers suggested further disinflation, boosting rate-cut hopes.
Sector Breakdown: Technology (+0.7%) and Consumer Discretionary (+0.6%) led gains, while Energy (-0.2%) lagged on oil price dips. Eleven of 11 S&P sectors ended positive.
Notable Movers: Nvidia (NVDA) +2.4% on AI chip demand; Boeing (BA) -1.1% amid supply chain jitters.
Volatility Insight: The VIX dipped 4.9% to 19.03, its lowest since mid-September, with intraday lows near 18.5—reflecting complacency before trade headlines escalated later in the week. Trading volume was moderate at 10.8 billion shares.
Tuesday, October 14, 2025
Sentiment soured slightly as mixed earnings and initial U.S.-China tariff barbs (early reports of 60% duties on EVs) weighed on global supply chains. The S&P 500 fluctuated wildly, peaking +0.3% early before sliding to -0.4% mid-session, closing down 0.16% at 6,644.31.
Key Drivers: Semiconductor weakness dominated after ASML’s weak guidance on China export curbs; retail sales data (up 0.4% MoM, in line) provided no major lift. Investors eyed Fed minutes hinting at a November rate cut but flagged trade risks.
Sector Breakdown: Industrials (-0.5%) and Information Technology (-0.4%) dragged, offset by gains in Utilities (+0.3%) as a safe-haven play. Eight sectors positive, three negative.
Notable Movers: AMD -2.8% on chip sector rotation; JPMorgan (JPM) +1.1% pre-earnings buzz. Apple (AAPL) flat despite services growth report.
Volatility Insight: VIX rose 9.4% to 20.81, spiking intraday to 21.5 on tariff news alerts—its first close above 20 since August, signaling budding unease. Volume ticked up to 11.2 billion shares.
Wednesday, October 15, 2025
A broad rebound materialized as dip-buyers stepped in following Tuesday’s dip, fueled by stellar bank earnings and dovish Fed Chair Powell comments on “measured” policy easing. The S&P 500 swung from -0.2% early to +0.6% late, settling up 0.40% at 6,671.06.
Key Drivers: Bank of America (BAC) and Morgan Stanley (MS) crushed estimates—BAC +4.2% on net interest income beats, MS +2.8% on wealth management strength. Empire State Manufacturing Index surprised positively at +5.2, countering recession fears. Powell’s speech emphasized data-dependence amid trade noise.
Sector Breakdown: Financials (+1.2%) stole the show, followed by Health Care (+0.5%); Communication Services (-0.1%) slipped on ad spending concerns. All sectors but one advanced.
Notable Movers: Goldman Sachs (GS) +3.5% post-earnings; Meta (META) -0.9% on regulatory scrutiny. Gold futures hit a record $2,650/oz as a hedge.
Volatility Insight: VIX eased 0.81% to 20.64, with intraday range narrowing to 20.2-21.0—calming after Tuesday’s jolt, though options trading showed elevated put/call ratios. Volume steady at 11.0 billion shares.
Thursday, October 16, 2025
Trade war fears peaked as U.S. officials floated 100% tariffs on Chinese imports, echoing 2018 escalations and triggering a risk-off exodus. The S&P 500 plunged from flat open to -1.1% intraday low before partial recovery, closing down 0.63% at 6,629.07.
Key Drivers: Escalating rhetoric hit exporters hard; Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey tanked to -12.3 (vs. +10 expected), amplifying slowdown worries. Regional bank stress emerged with reports of rising loan delinquencies in commercial real estate.
Sector Breakdown: Financials (-1.4%, led by regionals) and Materials (-0.9%) tanked; Consumer Staples (+0.2%) held as defensive. Seven sectors down, four up.
Notable Movers: Regional banks like KeyCorp (KEY) -4.2%, Zions (ZION) -3.8% on credit fears; Caterpillar (CAT) -2.1% on China exposure. Gold surged +1.5% to new highs.
Volatility Insight: VIX exploded 22.7% to 25.31—its sharpest single-day jump since March 2023—peaking intraday at 28.99, the highest since late April. This “fear gauge” surge reflected VIX futures contango and heavy options hedging; volume spiked to 12.5 billion shares, the week’s highest.
Friday, October 17, 2025
Bargain hunters returned aggressively after Thursday’s rout, supported by weekend de-escalation signals from U.S.-China talks and solid consumer sentiment data. The S&P 500 rebounded from -0.3% open to +0.7% peak, closing up 0.53% at 6,664.01 for a weekly gain.
Key Drivers: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment rose to 71.2 (from 68.9), easing recession bets. No major earnings, but pre-market leaks on potential tariff carve-outs for allies boosted sentiment. Focus shifted to Q3 GDP preview (expected +2.8% annualized).
Sector Breakdown: Technology (+0.8%) and Industrials (+0.6%) recovered most; Energy (-0.1%) lagged on OPEC+ delay news. Nine sectors positive.
Notable Movers: Tesla +4.1% on Cybertruck ramp-up; regional banks like PNC -1.2% residual weakness. Broadcom (AVGO) +2.3% on semis rebound.
Volatility Insight: VIX cratered 17.9% to 20.78, dropping over 28% from Thursday’s intraday high—one of the largest peak-to-trough declines since 1991—marking a classic “spike peak” buy signal. Intraday range: 22.5-26.0; volume eased to 10.5 billion shares.
Weekly Summary Table
Weekly Totals: S&P 500 +0.14%, VIX +9.2%. The VIX’s Thursday spike underscored trade fragility, but Friday’s plunge suggests tactical stabilization. Next week: Watch Q3 GDP (Oct 20 est.), more bank earnings, and tariff updates for volatility cues.