Monday, November 24, 2025
Key Drivers:
Big Tech and AI stocks surged after strong enthusiasm around new AI product developments from major firms, helping reverse the mid-November pullback.
Fed officials hinted that a December rate cut was likely, pushing rate-cut probability above 80%.
After a rough earlier part of November, Monday was framed as a “reset day” where traders covered shorts and rotated back into growth.
Sector Breakdown:
S&P 500 gained roughly 1.6%, Nasdaq rallied nearly 2.7%—its best day in months.
Tech led aggressively, followed by Materials, Health Care, Consumer Discretionary, and Communication Services.
All 11 S&P sectors closed positive, with defensive groups lagging but still green.
Notable Movers:
Alphabet jumped on optimism around its next-gen AI technology.
Chip stocks (Broadcom, Micron, AMD) saw large percentage gains as investors rotated back into AI infrastructure.
Tesla and other high-beta growth names benefited from falling yields and renewed risk appetite.
Volatility Insight:
VIX dropped sharply to around 20.5, down more than 12% on the day.
This was a textbook volatility crush fueled by heavy hedge unwinds and short-gamma easing.
Term structure steepened back into contango after being kinked from the prior week’s scare.
Tuesday, November 25, 2025
Key Drivers:
Consumer Confidence fell sharply, showing household pessimism—normally bearish, but markets interpreted it as more reason for the Fed to cut rates.
Mixed housing data reinforced the “slowing but not collapsing” economic backdrop.
Reports that a rate-friendly Fed Chair candidate was gaining traction helped maintain the dovish narrative.
Sector Breakdown:
S&P 500 rose nearly 1%, Nasdaq about 0.7%.
Health Care and Consumer Discretionary were the day’s top performers.
Tech cooled relative to Monday but remained firm.
Two sectors ended slightly negative, with Consumer Staples underperforming.
Notable Movers:
Alphabet and major chipmakers extended their gains, though less explosively than Monday.
Robinhood and high-beta fintech names began showing strength ahead of Wednesday’s bigger move.
Volatility Insight:
VIX dropped again to around 18.6, another 9–10% decline.
The two-day vol collapse—23+ ➝ 20.5 ➝ 18.6—showed implied volatility resetting faster than realized volatility.
Hedges purchased during the prior week’s scare were rapidly losing value.
Wednesday, November 26, 2025
Key Drivers:
Rate-cut optimism remained the dominant theme.
Markets opened weak but reversed sharply, turning a down-1% morning into a strong close as traders positioned bullishly into the holiday.
Thanksgiving week historically pulls short-covering and low-volume melt-ups, and this session was a classic example.
Sector Breakdown:
S&P 500 gained around 0.7%, Nasdaq 0.8%, Russell 2000 0.8%.
Tech was once again the primary engine, powered by Nvidia, Microsoft, and Broadcom.
Financials, especially fintech names, outperformed.
Defensive sectors lagged as investors stayed in risk-on mode.
Notable Movers:
Robinhood surged nearly 11% on news of a new exchange expansion, becoming one of the strongest names of the day.
Nvidia, Broadcom, and Microsoft extended the tech rally.
Small-cap cyclicals participated, showing the rally was broad—not just mega-cap driven.
Volatility Insight:
VIX slid to roughly 17.2, the third straight significant decline.
The market entered a “holiday vol compression” regime: realized volatility fell, and implied volatility bled out.
Demand for short-dated crash protection evaporated into the long weekend.
Thursday, November 27, 2025 (Thanksgiving – Market Closed)
Friday, November 28, 2025
Key Drivers:
Shortened Black Friday session but still marked the fifth straight up day.
Despite the rally, AI leaders (especially Nvidia) remained weak overall on the month, creating a split between index strength and individual tech volatility.
Rate-cut expectations capped off one of the strongest Thanksgiving weeks in years.
Sector Breakdown:
S&P 500 rose about 0.5%, Nasdaq 0.7%, Russell 2000 0.6%.
Growth and tech once again led, helped by Meta, Micron, and several software names.
Small caps outperformed for the week, showing improving breadth.
Defensive and low-beta sectors underperformed slightly.
Notable Movers:
Nvidia dropped around 1.8%, closing the month with a double-digit decline despite the market’s late-month rally.
Micron gained nearly 3%, continuing its strong week.
Meta and other mega-cap growth names added to Nasdaq strength.
Volatility Insight:
VIX dropped to roughly 16.35, the lowest of the week.
Volatility collapsed from 23+ the prior Friday to the mid-teens—an enormous normalization.
The week ended with indices at highs, volatility at lows, but risk not actually low due to continued internal volatility in AI leadership stocks.