Monday, November 17, 2025
Key Drivers:
Markets opened the week under pressure as the “AI bubble?” narrative gained traction. Investors sold high-multiple tech and AI-exposed names ahead of Nvidia’s earnings and after a major Wall Street firm warned that a 5% pullback in the S&P 500 was possible. The S&P 500 fell about 0.9%, the Nasdaq slipped 0.8%, and small caps were hit hardest with roughly a 2% decline.
Sector Breakdown:
Technology led the selloff, but weakness spilled into materials, financials, and energy. Defensive sectors such as consumer staples and utilities held up better but didn’t fully counterbalance the broader risk-off tone.
Notable Movers:
Nvidia and the AI complex continued their multi-day slide.
Lithium names surged—Albemarle, SQM, and other producers rallied sharply on bullish long-term demand projections tied to EVs and AI-related energy storage.
Volatility Insight:
The VIX jumped to the mid-22s, its highest level in weeks. This was a meaningful vol repricing for a market that was only down ~1%. Options markets were signaling concern about AI valuations and macro uncertainty rather than a routine dip.
Tuesday, November 18, 2025
Key Drivers:
A global equity selloff carried into U.S. markets. The S&P 500 dropped another 0.8%, the Nasdaq fell 1.2%, while interestingly the Russell 2000 managed a small gain as traders selectively rotated into oversold small caps.
Sector Breakdown:
Tech, materials, financials, and energy lagged again—classic “growth + cyclicals” de-risking. Healthcare and staples outperformed on a relative basis.
Notable Movers:
Mega-cap tech and AI names remained under pressure as valuation concerns intensified.
Bitcoin slid under $90,000, reinforcing the broad de-risking theme across speculative assets.
Volatility Insight:
The VIX spiked into the mid-24s, nearly 5 points above Friday’s close. This was not just elevated realized volatility—implied vol and skew were rising, signaling firm demand for downside protection and hedging around tech and the upcoming Fed meeting.
Wednesday, November 19, 2025
Key Drivers:
Markets finally stabilized. The S&P 500 rose about 0.4%, the Nasdaq gained 0.6%, and the Russell 2000 was roughly flat. It was still a choppy session, with indices bouncing between red and green as traders positioned ahead of Nvidia’s earnings after the close.
Sector Breakdown:
Tech led the rebound, especially AI-exposed names that traders were willing to buy tactically into the event. Communication services and selective consumer discretionary names participated. Cyclicals and small caps lagged.
Notable Movers:
Nvidia rallied into earnings, pulling the AI complex with it.
Treasury yields stabilized, giving growth stocks breathing room.
Volatility Insight:
The VIX eased to the high-23s, down slightly from the previous day but still elevated. This was a classic “pause day” in volatility—relief but not capitulation. Short-dated vol stayed bid because traders weren’t ready to sell protection ahead of the biggest earnings catalyst of the quarter.
Thursday, November 20, 2025
Key Drivers:
The most dramatic session of the week.
Markets gapped higher in the morning after Nvidia delivered strong earnings and upbeat AI commentary. But by the afternoon, the rally had fully reversed. The S&P 500 ended down 1.6%, the Nasdaq lost 2.2%, and the Russell 2000 declined 1.8%.
This became the day the market openly questioned whether the broader AI ecosystem is over-levered, over-spent, and priced for perfection.
Sector Breakdown:
Tech and AI-exposed growth were hit the hardest.
Crypto-related names also traded sharply lower as risk sentiment deteriorated.
Walmart and staples held up and even rallied on strong earnings—investors sought predictable cash flow amid tech turmoil.
Notable Movers:
Nvidia pulled a classic post-earnings whipsaw: up over 5% early, closing down around 3%.
Bitcoin fell into the mid-$80Ks.
Retail names tied to stable margins—like Walmart—traded well in contrast to speculative tech names.
Volatility Insight:
The VIX spiked into the mid-26s, the highest since spring. This was the real vol shock of the week. The intraday rally-then-collapse created a gamma squeeze for short-dated options traders and forced hedging flows. Protection demand surged across the curve.
This day marked a potential volatility regime shift.
Friday, November 21, 2025
Key Drivers:
Markets closed the week on a strong note. The S&P 500 gained about 1%, the Nasdaq rose 0.9%, and small caps exploded higher with nearly a 3% gain. The catalyst: dovish commentary from the New York Fed President, which traders interpreted as opening the door for a possible December rate cut.
Sector Breakdown:
Housing and rate-sensitive sectors rallied hard (homebuilders, building products, REIT-linked names).
Tech bounced but underperformed relative to Thursday’s damage—leadership broadened into cyclicals.
Notable Movers:
Homebuilders jumped 5–7% as rate-cut odds rose.
Oracle was the worst performer in the S&P 500, down nearly 6%, seen as a proxy for AI-capex excess.
Nvidia slipped again, while Broadcom and AMD also traded lower as the market reevaluated the AI spending cycle.
Volatility Insight:
The VIX pulled back into the mid-23s, down roughly 3 points from Thursday but still far above the sub-20 levels of the prior week. Implied volatility didn’t fully unwind, suggesting traders expect choppy, headline-driven trading into December’s Fed meeting and ongoing scrutiny of AI valuations.