Monday, November 10, 2025
Key Drivers:
Powerful rebound after the prior week’s pullback.
Optimism surged as reports circulated that a tentative deal to end the U.S. government shutdown was close.
Risk appetite returned sharply, especially in growth and AI-linked names.
Sector Breakdown:
Leaders:
Technology: AI, semiconductors, and cloud/software jumped sharply.
Consumer Discretionary: E-commerce and retail gained as risk appetite broadened.
Communication Services: Platform and AI-adjacent names joined the rally.
Laggards:
Consumer Staples: Slight declines as defensive money rotated into higher beta.
Notable Movers:
Nvidia: Strong rally (high-single digits), leading the semiconductor surge.
Palantir: Nearly double-digit intraday strength on AI enthusiasm.
Semiconductors broadly: Strong bid across the chip ecosystem.
Health insurers and airlines: Weakness tied to shutdown-related uncertainty.
Volatility Insight:
VIX fell sharply into the high-17s, a sizable vol crush after last week’s defensive positioning.
VVIX drifted lower, reflecting active unwinds of volatility exposure.
Classic “relief rally + vol reset” environment.
Tuesday, November 11, 2025
Key Drivers:
Market cooled after Monday’s surge.
Senate passed a funding bill, increasing confidence the shutdown would end soon.
Growth stocks softened while defensives and cyclicals strengthened.
Sector Breakdown:
Leaders:
Health Care: Strong rotation into stability-oriented sectors.
Consumer Staples & Energy: Solid gains as money moved into quality and value.
Laggard:
Technology: Profit-taking after Monday’s explosive move.
Notable Movers:
Merck: Strong rally on defensive flows.
Devon Energy: Up materially alongside firmer energy markets.
Tech mega caps: Mild declines as AI valuations were reassessed.
Volatility Insight:
VIX in the low-17s, slightly lower than Monday.
VVIX ticked higher, hinting at subtle demand for convexity even as headline volatility stayed muted.
Quiet front-end vol but busier hedging beneath the surface.
Wednesday, November 12, 2025
Key Drivers:
A “drift near highs” day: S&P hugged record territory.
Nasdaq was slightly red; small caps slipped.
The big story was AMD raising long-term AI growth guidance, energizing chips even as other tech names softened.
Treasury yields eased, helping valuations hold.
Sector Breakdown:
Technology:
Chips and GPU suppliers outperformed on AMD’s comments.
Other growth areas were mixed, with some profit-taking.
Defensives:
Stable-to-positive as yields eased.
Cyclicals:
Mild underperformance as small caps slipped.
Notable Movers:
AMD: Surged strongly on bullish AI guidance.
Palantir: Pulled back mid-single digits after recent strength.
On Holdings: Jumped double digits on earnings.
Several fintech and crypto-adjacent names: Mixed to lower.
Volatility Insight:
VIX edged up into the mid-17s, a minor but meaningful uptick given the S&P sat near highs.
VVIX continued pushing higher, signaling increasing demand for tail protection and term structure hedges.
Quiet surface, but hedging activity underneath the hood was intensifying.
Thursday, November 13, 2025
Key Drivers:
One of the sharpest selloffs since April.
AI/tech unwound aggressively amid bubble warnings.
News circulated that SoftBank had exited a large Nvidia stake, adding fuel to de-risking.
Traders questioned the odds of a December rate cut as Fed speakers leaned cautious.
Sector Breakdown:
Broadly negative: 10 of 11 sectors red.
Worst performers:
Consumer Discretionary: Retail and growth consumer names sold aggressively.
Technology: Semis, AI, cloud—heavy liquidation.
Industrials: Hit by the growth scare.
Only sector green:
Energy: Slight positive as crude was firm and value factors held up.
Notable Movers:
Nvidia, Super Micro Computer, Palantir, Broadcom: Heavy losses, emblematic of AI/tech liquidation.
Disney: Dropped sharply after revenue disappointment.
Robinhood: One of the biggest losers on the day.
Berkshire Hathaway: One of the few notable gainers as investors rotated into quality.
Volatility Insight:
VIX surged to ~20, briefly crossing above 21 intraday—a meaningful regime shift.
VVIX spiked above 110, confirming strong demand for convex hedges and vol exposure.
This was the clear volatility inflection day of the week: rapid repricing of tech risk and fresh hedging flows.
Friday, November 14, 2025
Key Drivers:
Wild intraday reversal: markets opened sharply lower but recovered by the close.
Early morning continued the AI-led selloff, but dip-buyers emerged—especially in mega-cap tech.
Fed cut expectations drifted lower, reducing macro clarity.
Sector Breakdown:
Technology: Strongest rebound—semis, mega-cap software, and AI names led the stabilizing bounce.
Cyclicals: Mixed to slightly positive as pressure eased.
Defensives: Mildly red as capital rotated back into beaten-up growth.
Notable Movers:
Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom, Microsoft, Tesla: All rebounded after Thursday’s carnage.
Meta and Apple: Flat to slightly lower—less volatility than high-beta AI names.
Walmart: Fell on leadership transition news.
Crypto and gold: Both weaker on the day amid cross-asset rebalancing.
Volatility Insight:
VIX spiked above 22 intraday before fading into the high-19s by close.
Classic pattern: overnight fear → morning panic → midday stabilization → vol crush off the highs.
VVIX stayed elevated, even as VIX pulled back, indicating ongoing interest in tail hedges.