A VIX print of 100 would be financial armageddon - beyond COVID and 2008’s peak. It’s never happened before, but here’s exactly what UVXY could hit based on where VIX starts.
Starting from VIX 15 (Normal Market)
This is the most likely starting point
VIX Move: 15 → 100 (+567%)
Conservative: UVXY gains 450%, reaching $110 from $20
Base Case: UVXY gains 850%, reaching $190 from $20
Extreme: UVXY gains 1,700%, reaching $360 from $20
Starting from VIX 30 (Already Elevated)
Crisis already underway
VIX Move: 30 → 100 (+233%)
Conservative: UVXY gains 186%, reaching $57 from $20
Base Case: UVXY gains 350%, reaching $90 from $20
Extreme: UVXY gains 700%, reaching $160 from $20
The Math
Here’s how I calculated these scenarios:
Conservative Case (0.8x VIX move):
Assumes futures lag significantly
Slow grind higher over weeks
Contango fights the move
Base Case (1.5x VIX move):
Similar to March 2020 relationships
Multi-day spike with futures following
Some backwardation develops
Extreme Case (3x VIX move):
Instant gap with full backwardation
Multiple limit-up days
Maximum daily compounding
Theoretical but possible in true panic
Total UVXY Gain: 690% (Within our base case range)
The Speed Factor: Why Path Matters
Scenario A: Gradual Grind (10 days to VIX 100)
Daily compounding maximized
Futures track more closely
UVXY could gain 1,000%+
Scenario B: Instant Spike (1 day to VIX 100)
Futures can’t keep up
Single day limits (+80% cap on futures)
UVXY “only” gains 300-500%
Scenario C: Multiple Spikes and Retreats
Most realistic scenario
Whipsaw action destroys leverage
UVXY might only gain 200-400%
When Starting VIX Level Changes Everything
Why Low Starting VIX = Bigger UVXY Gains:
More Room to Run: 10→100 is a bigger percentage than 50→100
Leverage Compounds: 1.5x daily leverage multiplies over more days
Futures Curve Flip: Bigger contango-to-backwardation shift
Psychology: Unexpected spikes from calm create more panic
Historical Context: Has This Ever Happened?
Highest VIX Levels Ever:
October 24, 2008: VIX hit 89.53 intraday
March 16, 2020: VIX hit 82.69
VIX 100 would require:
Complete market structure breakdown
Multiple circuit breakers
Potential trading halts
Systemic financial crisis
Key Takeaways
From normal VIX levels (15), if VIX hits 100:
Minimum UVXY gain: 400% (to $100)
Likely UVXY gain: 800% (to $180)
Maximum UVXY gain: 1,700% (to $360)