A VIX print of 100 would be financial armageddon - beyond COVID and 2008’s peak. It’s never happened before, but here’s exactly what UVXY could hit based on where VIX starts.
Conservative vs Base vs Extreme Case
Conservative Case (0.8x VIX move):
Assumes futures lag significantly
Slow grind higher over weeks
Contango fights some of the move
Lots of whipsaw action destroys some of the move through beta slippage
Base Case (1.5x VIX move):
Similar to March 2020 relationships
Multi-day spike with futures following
Some backwardation helps the move
Extreme Case (3x VIX move):
Instant gap with full backwardation
Maximum daily compounding
Theoretical but possible in true panic
Example Scenario: Starting from VIX 15 (Normal Market)
This is the most likely starting point
VIX Move: 15 → 100 (+567%)
Conservative: UVXY gains 450%, reaching $110 from $20
Base Case: UVXY gains 850%, reaching $190 from $20
Extreme: UVXY gains 1,700%, reaching $360 from $20
Starting VIX Level Is Important
Why Low Starting VIX = Bigger UVXY Gains:
More Room to Run: 10→100 is a bigger percentage than 50→100
Leverage Compounds: 1.5x daily leverage multiplies over more days
Futures Curve Flip: Bigger contango-to-backwardation shift
Psychology: Unexpected spikes from calm create more panic
Historical Context: Has 100 VIX Ever Happened?
Highest VIX Levels Ever:
October 24, 2008: VIX hit 89.53 intraday
March 16, 2020: VIX hit 82.69
VIX 100 would require:
Complete market structure breakdown
Multiple circuit breakers
Potential trading halts
Systemic financial crisis