When UVXY rips off an all-time low (ATL), a quick 10% pullback can feel like “the top is in.” The data says otherwise.
Translation: the bigger the surge, the less you should trust a mere 10% shakeout. By the time a move is +30%, +50%, or more, a 10% dip is usually just noise—most episodes go on to print a higher intraday high before rolling to the next ATL.
Why 10% is a head fake (especially after bigger spikes)
Mean-reversion is choppy: UVXY’s rallies rarely die in a straight line. A routine 8–15% dip often resets intraday momentum without ending the episode.
Volatility feeds on volatility: Once an episode reaches +20%…+50%, tails thicken. Continuation risk stays elevated; shallow pullbacks are common pauses, not conclusions.
Behavior scales: After +50% and beyond, your table shows a 10% dip leaves ~70–90% odds the spike is not done. That’s nowhere near enough certainty to fade confidently.
Bottom line
A 10% dip is not a reliable end-of-spike signal—especially after +30% and +50% runs. Treat it as a pause, not proof the top is in. If your goal is to ride the move to the next ATL, wait for deeper confirmation (scaled to spike size).