The short answer is no, not realistically. But the higher leverage of UVIX makes it theoretically more possible than UVXY. Here’s what would actually need to happen for either to reach zero.
What Does the Math Say?
Both UVXY and UVIX track short-term VIX futures contracts, attempting to deliver leveraged exposure to volatility. The key difference is the degree of leverage:
UVXY: 1.5x daily leverage
UVIX: 2x daily leverage
For either ETF to reach zero in a single trading day, the underlying VIX futures index would need to decline by a specific percentage:
UVXY’s threshold:
With 1.5x leverage, UVXY would reach zero if VIX futures dropped approximately 67%in one day
UVIX’s threshold:
With 2x leverage, UVIX would reach zero if VIX futures dropped 50% in one day
This is why UVIX is theoretically more vulnerable: it requires a smaller move in the underlying index to be completely wiped out.
Has This Ever Happened?
The VIX futures have never declined 50% in a single day, but they’ve come closer than many realize. The largest single-day Spot VIX declines in history include:
April 9, 2025 (Post-Crisis Relief): VIX fell 35.8% (down 18.7 points)
May 10, 2010 (After Flash Crash Panic): VIX fell 29.6% (down 12.1 points)
August 6, 2024 (Volatility Reset): VIX fell 28.2% (down 10.9 points)
August 9, 2011 (Eurozone Debt Relief): VIX fell 27.0% (down 12.9 points)
June 15, 2006 (Mid-Year Calm): VIX fell 25.9% (down 5.6 points)
These are significant moves. A 35.8% decline is over 70% of the way to the 50% threshold that would wipe out UVIX, and only about 54% of the way to the 67% threshold for UVXY.
This means UVIX has come considerably closer to theoretical wipeout than UVXY. While we’ve never seen a 50% decline, but a 35.8% decline proves that extreme volatility collapses can approach that territory.
For VIX futures to drop 50% in a day, they would need to start around 30-40 and end near 15-20. Unprecedented, but it’s within the realm of extreme market behavior. it’s not mathematical impossibile.