BREAKING: Trump says Venezuela's airspace now “closed in its entirety”
Why Markets Won't Care
When painful and tragic events happen around the world, many people assume the stock market will crash.
However, it depends on where the tragic events are happening. Every geopolitical conflict so far in 2025 has barely moved U.S. equities. Not because the events aren’t serious, but because markets responds to economic news, not emotions.
We saw this with Gaza.
We saw it again with Iran.
And we would likely see the same with Venezuela.
It’s All About the Magnificent 7
The S&P 500 is dominated by 7 mega-cap innovators: Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Amazon, Meta, Google, Tesla. If a global event does not affect their:
earnings
supply chains
data centers
energy input costs
global consumer base
liquidity conditions
…it has little to no impact on the index.
This is why tragedies in regions with limited integration into the global economy often result in minimal market movement.
The Iran Example
Despite intense global attention, U.S. stocks barely reacted during escalations with Iran. The reason is:
Iran is heavily sanctioned
It’s disconnected from global capital markets
It has limited technological relevance
It contributes minimally to global growth
It has no effect on the business models of the Magnificent 7
Even its oil exports, while important regionally, are not central enough to global flows to create lasting market stress unless a major chokepoint is hit.
Venezuela & Gaza Similarities
Both Venezuela and the Gaza region share a similar economic characteristic:
They are not hubs of global innovation or growth.
There are no critical semiconductor fabs, no cornerstone AI infrastructure, no major shipping lanes, no large-cap tech suppliers, and no meaningful revenue exposure for the companies that actually move the S&P 500.
In brutal market terms:
If there is no innovation, no supply chain importance, and no earnings exposure, the U.S. market doesn’t react.
Where Markets Do Care
Conflicts involving:
China
Taiwan (semiconductors)
European industrial centers
Key global shipping lanes
…carry real market risk because they touch the core arteries of global technology and trade.
The Investor’s Takeaway
Acknowledging the market’s indifference isn’t a commentary on the value of human life. It’s simply an understanding of how markets operate in a world dominated by a handful of technology giants.
The suffering in these regions is real and significant.
But markets move on cash flows, innovation, and global economic integration.
And historically, even the biggest geopolitical shocks have ultimately been buying opportunities, not long-term market catastrophes.